Fed Update 8-01-2018

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Fed Update:   The FOMC concluded their monetary policy meeting today, which, as expected, resulted in no change to the fed funds rate—currently targeted to a range of 1.75-2.00%.  There were no dissenting votes. The formal narrative again was positive in its assessment of overall conditions, with both economic activity and labor market descriptions being… Read more »

Fed Note 1-31-2018

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The first FOMC meeting of the year was uneventful, as expected, with no action on the interest rate policy front, with short-term rates kept to a targeted range of 1.25-1.50%.  There were no dissents.  As there was also no planned press conference, formal comments and a Q&A session from new Chair Powell will have to… Read more »

Fed Note 12-13-2017

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The December FOMC meeting was considered one in the ‘important’ category, in that additional materials were released, a press conference was scheduled afterward, as well as it being the last of the year.  Based on economic and inflation data released over the past few weeks, odds of a rate hike had moved to nearly 99%,… Read more »

Fed Note 11-01-2017

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The November FOMC meeting was anticipated to be a minor affair, in that no actions were expected in terms of policy change, nor was there a press conference scheduled afterward.  This played out exactly as such. The formal statement reflected the status quo, with the committee describing economic activity as rising at a ‘solid rate’… Read more »

Fed Note 9-20-2017

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The FOMC completed their September meeting, with an outcome of no interest rate policy change as expected, but there was something a little different to announce.  This was a more ‘important’ meeting, being one of the four per year that features a post-meeting press conference and Q&A session, used to clarify and fine-tune policy (which… Read more »

Fed Note 7-26-2017

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The July FOMC meeting resulted in no action.  This was one of those in-between ‘minor’ meetings, with no planned press conference nor any release of economic projections, so no announcements were expected.  The official FOMC statement noted continued strength in labor markets (as opposed to last month’s comment about the pace ‘moderating’) and economic activity… Read more »

Fed Note 6-14-2017

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The June FOMC meeting ended today, and resulted in a +0.25% hike in the fed funds target rate, bringing this to a new range of 1.00-1.25%.  In fact, Fed Funds futures had shown a 99%+ probability of this outcome, which implied a lack of surprise.  There was one dissent, from Minneapolis Fed president Kashkari, who… Read more »

Fed Note 5-3-2017

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The May Fed meeting was a ‘minor’ one, with no press conference or economic projections, so was not considered to be one with a high probability of action.  This ended up being the case, with the Fed Funds rate being maintained at 0.75-1.00%, per the bump higher in March.  The formal statement acknowledged that the… Read more »

Fed Note 3-15-2017

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It was a fairly dramatic turn of events over the prior few weeks with the probabilities of a Fed hike in March moving from about one-in-three or lower to almost guaranteed by the time we heard higher rate-focused comments from several FOMC members—something they often do strategically to help shape expectations.  Those expectations were realized… Read more »

Fed Note 2-2-2017

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It wasn’t expected for the Fed to take any action at their meeting concluding today, so there were no disappointments (i.e. nothing happened from an interest rate standpoint, by unanimous vote). Their formal statement reflected their views that the economy is continuing to expand at a ‘moderate’ pace, coupled with ‘solid’ labor growth. Overall, the… Read more »